The mysteries of weight loss

I know I've blogged about this topic before, but as I'm lying here in bed debating whether to go to spin this morning (third day in a row), I'm completely baffled.

The last three weeks I've lost 5lbs in weight (3lb loss, stayed the same, 2lb loss). This is great and really keeps me going trying to get in shape.

However, it doesn't seem to make sense. Over said three weeks I've been eating lots of fattening foods, drinking alcohol and not exercising as much.

Yet weeks where I've been super strict with diet and exercised almost every day I've on occasion not lost or put on?

I appreciate I am guilty of overanalysing my progress somewhat and should just be happy I'm doing well, at my lowest weight now. Being someone like me who likes to be in control and know what's happening though I find I want to understand how to keep making positive progress, perhaps by noticing patterns and following them moving forwards.

How on earth you do that when trying to lose weight and get fitter is beyond me right now. Nothing seems to make sense.

I'm having a BBQ today and alcohol and am currently debating whether or not to go spin. Do I have a break - as I have done well - as a treat and also give my body a chance to rest (particularly before a pressured week ahead at work)?

Or am I viewing it all wrong and should keep up with my spinning and start the week off as I mean to go on?

Sitting here feeling tired, a bit stiff from yesterday's session and also somewhat dehydrated from the sun yesterday I know what answer I'm veering towards.

If only I knew what impact it was going to have...but that's never going to happen with this mystery surrounding weight loss!